Prediction Market Legal States: Where You Can Trade and the Court Cases Deciding It

Three federal appeals courts have now answered the same question, and they do not agree. Can a state treat a sports event contract on a CFTC-regulated exchange as an illegal sports bet? The Third Circuit said no in April 2026. The Ninth Circuit said yes on August 28. The Sixth Circuit said yes on September 25. The Supreme Court has petitions in hand and until January to decide whether to step in.

Until then, what you can trade depends on where you are standing. This page tracks which apps restrict which states, the cases driving those restrictions, and what to watch next.

The short answer: where prediction markets work today

Every app on our best prediction markets list is federally regulated and available in most states. The exceptions are specific, and they are mostly about sports contracts.

App	Minimum age	Not available / restricted
Kalshi	18+	Washington (most markets, court order); Massachusetts (sports injunction on hold during appeal); Nevada can enforce its gambling laws after the Ninth Circuit ruling
Polymarket US	18+	Nevada
DraftKings Predictions	18+	Maine, New Hampshire; no sports in Nevada; sports restricted in several other states
FanDuel Predicts	18+	General markets nationwide; sports in a limited group of states
Crypto.com Predict	21+	No contracts in Arizona or New York; no sports in IL, MA, MD, MI, NJ, NV, OH
Fanatics Markets	21+	Live only in 22 states: AL, AK, CA, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, ME, MN, MS, NE, NH, NM, ND, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT
Novig	21+	Arizona, Michigan, Nevada

Why states and prediction markets are fighting

The Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC jurisdiction over futures and swaps traded on designated exchanges. Kalshi and its rivals argue that a contract on the Super Bowl, listed on a CFTC-regulated venue, is a swap. On that reading, federal law pre-empts state gambling rules.

States see a sports bet with a different wrapper. Sports wagering in licensed states comes with a 21+ age limit, state licensing, responsible gaming mandates and state taxes on operator revenue. Event contracts on a federal exchange skip all of that and reach states, including California and Texas, where sports betting is not legal at all.

Tribal nations add a third front. Many tribes hold exclusive gaming rights under compacts with their states, and several have sued Kalshi under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

The federal appeals: a circuit split

Court	States	Date	Outcome
Third Circuit	New Jersey	April 2026	For Kalshi: New Jersey’s regulator cannot block its sports contracts
Ninth Circuit	Nevada (Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com)	August 28, 2026	For Nevada: unanimous panel affirmed dissolving Kalshi’s injunction
Sixth Circuit	Ohio, Tennessee	September 25, 2026	For the states: unanimous panel, opinion by Judge Julia Smith Gibbons

What the Ninth Circuit said

The Ninth Circuit panel rejected Kalshi’s broad reading of the Commodity Exchange Act, reasoning that CFTC regulations currently prohibit gaming-related contracts on prediction markets. Front Office Sports reported that the ruling lets Nevada enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com. The CFTC said the split “calls out for resolution by the Supreme Court.”

What the Sixth Circuit said

In Cincinnati, a three-judge panel held unanimously that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate event contracts under their gambling laws. Tennessee had lost at the district court in February, when a judge granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction. The Sixth Circuit went the other way. Kalshi has asked both the Sixth and Ninth Circuits for rehearing.

The Supreme Court petitions

New Jersey’s petition, Flaherty v. Kalshi, is docketed as No. 26-299. A related Nevada matter sits at No. 26-338. In October, Kalshi asked for more time to respond, and Nevada sought a similar extension in the related case. Both requests came after the states filed an amicus brief on October 7 and the NFL and a group of tribes filed on October 8.

Semafor reported that Kalshi accepts the justices must eventually decide but argues pending rehearing petitions and forthcoming CFTC rules muddy the picture. The American Gaming Association read the extension request as a lack of confidence. CFTC Chair Mike Selig said earlier this year he would welcome a Supreme Court ruling.

The Court has until January to decide which cases it will hear this term. If it takes one, a decision would likely follow by the end of June.

The CFTC’s proposed rule

On June 10, 2026, the CFTC published a proposal to amend Regulation 40.11 and add a new Appendix F to Part 40. It would spell out which event contracts can be treated as “contrary to the public interest” and barred from listing or clearing. Comments closed on July 27. Kalshi has cited the coming rules in its rehearing petitions. Nevada argues they would not change the outcome.

State-by-state litigation tracker

State	Key action	Status
Arizona	20-count criminal misdemeanor complaint against Kalshi (March 17, 2026); CFTC sued the state in April	Federal court blocked the prosecution; Kalshi won a civil preliminary injunction on May 5
California	Three tribes sued Kalshi under IGRA	Ninth Circuit appeal argued July 10, 2026
Connecticut	CFTC sued the state	Pending
Illinois	CFTC sued the state	Pending; Massachusetts ruling expected to bear on it
Kentucky	April 2026 law bars licensed operators from dealing with prediction market platforms	Enacted
Maryland	Kalshi sought an injunction against the state	Denied
Massachusetts	Injunction against Kalshi’s sports markets, stayed by the Appeals Court on February 17, 2026; Supreme Judicial Court heard argument on May 4, 2026	Sports markets live during appeal; SJC ruling pending
Minnesota	Law making unlicensed prediction market operation a felony, effective August 1, 2026; CFTC sued on May 19	Contested
Nevada	State TRO against Kalshi (March 2026); DraftKings and FanDuel surrendered approvals (November 2025)	Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada on August 28; SCOTUS petition pending
New Jersey	Kalshi’s injunction against the state regulator	Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April; New Jersey petitioned SCOTUS
New Mexico	Four tribes sued Kalshi (May 2026)	Pending
New York	AG suits against Gemini Titan and Coinbase (April 2026); state sued Polymarket (September 24, 2026); CFTC sued the state (April 24, 2026); Kalshi’s own pre-emption case filed October 2025	Pending
Ohio	Kalshi’s injunction request denied (March 2026)	Sixth Circuit ruled for the state on September 25
Rhode Island	State enforcement and federal pre-emption complaints (May 21, 2026)	Pending
Tennessee	Kalshi won a district court injunction (February 2026)	Sixth Circuit ruled for the state on September 25
Washington	AG sued Kalshi (March 2026); King County preliminary injunction (August 12, 2026)	Kalshi must geofence most markets
Wisconsin	Ho-Chunk Nation sued Kalshi; CFTC sued the state	Judge ruled on May 11, 2026, the tribe can sue

The tribal cases

Tribal nations argue that prediction markets undercut gaming rights they negotiated with their states under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. Three fronts are open:

• Wisconsin: the Ho-Chunk Nation sued Kalshi in August 2025. On May 11, 2026, a federal judge ruled the tribe can pursue its claims.
• California: three tribes lost a bid for a preliminary injunction at the district court and appealed. The Ninth Circuit heard argument on July 10, 2026.
• New Mexico: four tribes sued Kalshi in May 2026.

Tribes also filed an amicus brief at the Supreme Court in October, alongside the states and the NFL. Their involvement matters most in California, the biggest prize in the fight, where sports betting remains illegal and tribal casinos are a major industry.

Spotlight: Washington and Massachusetts

Washington produced the broadest state-court order so far. On August 12, 2026, King County Superior Court Judge John McHale granted the attorney general a preliminary injunction, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported. It required Kalshi to stop offering sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech and science markets to Washington residents. Kalshi also had to stop advertising there and build an effective geofence by September 2. Kalshi said it disagreed and maintains the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction over our exchange.”

In Massachusetts, a judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports markets in January 2026. In February, the Appeals Court put that order on hold while Kalshi appeals. The Supreme Judicial Court heard the case in May and has yet to rule. The Boston Red Sox promoted Kalshi to fans in August, which shows how tangled the commercial and legal pictures have become.

Nevada: the state that drew the line first

Nevada has fought prediction markets longer than anyone. In November 2025, DraftKings and FanDuel agreed to surrender their Nevada approvals rather than give up prediction markets elsewhere. Regulators called the products incompatible with the state’s gaming regime. Polymarket US and Novig both exclude the state, and DraftKings and FanDuel do not offer sports contracts there.

The Ninth Circuit ruling covers Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington as well as Nevada. It does not automatically change the rules in those states, but regulators can cite it in their own cases.

What a Supreme Court ruling could mean

There are three broad outcomes, and each would reshape the map differently.

The Court sides with Kalshi

If the justices hold that the Commodity Exchange Act pre-empts state gambling law for contracts on a federal exchange, state enforcement against sports contracts would largely collapse. Apps would likely restore sports markets in states such as Nevada, Washington and Massachusetts, and the CFTC’s own rules would become the main constraint.

The Court sides with the states

If states can apply their gambling laws, sports contracts would need a state license or would be pulled. Sportsbook-owned apps already concentrate sports contracts in non-sportsbook states and could adjust quickly. Economics, finance and weather markets would be far less affected, because most state actions so far have focused on sports.

The Court declines to hear it

The circuit split would stand. Operators would keep geofencing state by state according to which circuit they are in, and the CFTC’s final rule would carry even more weight.

How to check your own access

• Turn on location services. Every app geolocates you before a trade. If a market will not load, the app has blocked it for your current location.
• Check by category. Sports is the contested category. Economics, finance and weather markets remain open in most restricted states.
• Know your age limit. Kalshi, Polymarket US, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts accept 18-year-olds. Crypto.com, Fanatics and Novig require 21.
• Consider a licensed sportsbook. If you are in a state with legal sports betting, the regulated sportsbook carries no litigation risk. Our state betting guides cover ten states.

What to watch next

• Whether the Supreme Court grants review in Flaherty v. Kalshi or the Nevada matter, by January.
• Rulings on Kalshi’s rehearing petitions in the Sixth and Ninth Circuits.
• The CFTC’s final rule on event contracts under Regulation 40.11.
• The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court decision.
• Outcomes in New York’s suits against Polymarket, Gemini and Coinbase.

We update this page as rulings land. This page is a summary of public court actions, not legal advice.

Trading event contracts involves risk of loss. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.