Hedge Calculator: Lock In Profit or Protect Your Stake

Your preseason futures ticket is alive in the final, or four legs of your parlay have landed and one remains. A hedge, betting the other side, turns a maybe into a guaranteed profit. This hedge calculator tells you exactly how much to stake. Choose the same profit either way, or simply your money back.

Hedge bet formulas

Work in decimal odds. Call the original stake S, its decimal odds O, and the hedge’s decimal odds H.

Equal-profit hedge

Hedge stake = (S × O) ÷ H

This makes the total return identical whichever side wins.

Break-even hedge

Hedge stake = S ÷ (H − 1)

If the hedge wins, you get back exactly what you staked on both bets. If the original wins, you keep a larger profit.

Worked example: a futures bet in the final

You bet $100 on a team at +500 before the season. They reach the final, and the opponent is now -200.

• Original: S = $100, O = 6.00, potential return $600
• Hedge price: -200, so H = 1.50

Equal-profit option

Hedge stake = $600 ÷ 1.50 = $400. Total outlay: $500.

• Your team wins: $600 return − $500 staked = $100 profit
• The opponent wins: $400 × 1.50 = $600 return − $500 staked = $100 profit

Break-even option

Hedge stake = $100 ÷ 0.50 = $200. Total outlay: $300.

• Your team wins: $600 − $300 = $300 profit
• The opponent wins: $200 × 1.50 = $300 − $300 = $0

Not hedging keeps the full $500 upside but risks losing the $100. Each option trades upside for certainty. None is free.

The cost of hedging

A hedge is a second bet into the sportsbook’s margin. If the -200 price above carries normal vig, the fair price might be closer to -185, so your hedge has slightly negative expected value. Over a lifetime of betting, habitual hedging costs money.

That cost is worth paying when the guaranteed sum matters, typically when the potential payout is large relative to your bankroll. Shop the hedge across sportsbooks, because a better price on the second bet directly raises your locked-in profit. Check fair prices with our implied probability calculator.

When to use a hedge calculator

• Futures: a championship or award bet that has run deep. Hedging works best in two-way finals. In multi-runner markets like MVP races or golf, one bet cannot cover every outcome.
• Parlays: the last leg of a big ticket. Run the payout through our parlay calculator first.
• Live betting: a pre-game bet whose odds have moved sharply in your favor.
• Prediction markets: on exchanges such as Kalshi you can often simply sell your position. That works like a hedge without paying a sportsbook’s margin. See our prediction markets guide.
• Cash-out offers: compare the book’s cash-out figure with what a hedge would lock in.

Hedging mistakes to avoid

• Hedging out of nerves. If the original bet still has value and the stake is small relative to your bankroll, letting it ride is usually the higher-EV choice.
• Taking the first price. The hedge price decides your locked-in profit, so check several books before you place it.
• Hedging too early. On a futures bet, waiting for a two-way final often gives a cleaner hedge than covering several contenders along the way.

See all our free betting calculators.

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